Guerra all’Iraq: quando si avrà il cambio di regime?

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13:09:58
Marzo
27 2003

Guerra all’Iraq: quando si avrà il cambio di regime?

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Se gli americani arrivano a Bagdad, la conquistano e non catturano o uccidono Saddam Hussein, ci saranno gli estremi per un cambio di regime? È questa la domanda che turba i sonni degli analisti Usa, che temono che il dittatore iracheno sia meno facile del previsto da eliminare.

"La cosa più importante di tutte è la rimozione di Saddam", dice Loren Thompson, analista strategico del Lexington Institute in Virginia, che però aggiunge che poi sarà necessario eliminare dalla struttura statuale irachena il "residuo culturale che ne infetta la politica".

"l’esercito americano potrà proclamare la vittoria solo se saranno stati raggiunti tre obiettivi e cioè quando Saddam Hussein non eserciterà più poteri sovrani, quando ci sarà la fine di una opposizione militare organizzata e quando le forze militari americane si potranno muovere ovunque nel paese", dice invece John Reppert, della Harvard University.

Un possibile scenario è quello che prevede un colpo di stato che sostituisca Saddam con un generale. "In questo caso - dice l’ambasciatore americano Peter Galbraith - per l’opposizione irachena e in particolare per i curdi potrebbe essere un incubo".
Se tutto va invece come previsto, non appena la guerra finisce l’Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance del Pentagono inizierà a guidare la ricostruzione del paese. Il governo spetterà al generale Tommy Franks, che avrà ai suoi ordini tre civili incaricati di governare le tre zone del paese il Sud, il Centro e il Nord.

(CONTINUA)
Christian Science Monitor

Source by Lanci


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